2025年4月23日，ONE游戏官网行为科学与政策过问交叉创新团队进行2025年春季学期第一期（总第二十二次）行为科学分享会。本次讲座约请阿利坎特大学经济学全职教授、南加州大学Schaeffer健全政策中心高级钻研员Han Bleichrodt教授带来题为 “The Value of Life Under Prospect Theory” 的钻研分享。
分享人 The Speaker
Han Bleichrodt is a Full Professor of Economics at the University of Alicante. Prior to this, he held full professorships at Erasmus University Rotterdam and the Australian National University in Canberra. He is also a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Schaeffer Center of the University of Southern California in Los Angeles.
Professor Bleichrodt’s research focuses on behavioral and health economics, particularly in the areas of decision-making under risk and ambiguity, intertemporal choice, and the measurement of quality of life. Professor Bleichrodt has published over 100 articles in leading peer-reviewed journals, including Econometrica, American Economic Review, Management Science, Journal of Economic Theory, Review of Economics and Statistics, and Journal of Health Economics. He has served on the editorial boards of various academic journals and was Department Editor of Decision Analysis at Management Science from 2014 to 2018. He ranks in the top 1% of economists globally by citation metrics.
分享会 The Seminar
The value of a statistical life (VOSL) improves policy decisions, but it is subject to biases. Carthy et al. (1998) proposed a method that chains contingent valuation and the standard gamble (SG) used in quality of life measurement. It avoids some biases, but distinct variants led to different results. Sánchez-Martinez et al. (2021) showed how these differences could be reduced. However, they found that the VOSL depended on the health state used in the SG. Both studies assume expected utility (EU), which is often violated. We show how to derive the VOSL, under prospect theory (PT). A re-analysis of their data shows that the inconsistencies of Sánchez et al reduce under prospect theory. Mean VOSL drops to €300K-600K, lower than what most governments use. A pilot experiment in which we measure prospect theory's parameters for each respondent, finds few differences between EU and PT. Estimated VOSL, lies between €1.5M and €2.25M, which is in line with what most governments use.
